The DAO spring is coming

The DAO movement is becoming very real, and I’m arguing that 2020 is going to be a pivotal year in its evolution. It’s a good moment to look back and make some predictions for the year to come.¹

The DAO concept was incepted in people’s mind in 2013 right after Vitalik’s whitepaper and the renaissance of smart contracts. It had been wombed over the next two years with the early work in Backfeed, Colony and Wings, still very naive and with almost no live experimentation. TheDAO first live experiment in 2016 gave birth to the DAO concept into wider circles, hinting for the superpower it could raise. The next two years were again quiet, with baby (but important) steps taken in Aragon, DAOstack and Colony, using the first significant funding to build DAO infrastructures and early working interfaces. Specific-purpose Maker DAO was launched too. During the passing year, DAOs have seen their early childhood, with many real but very naive and small-scale experimentations, mostly by DAOstack, Aragon and Moloch joining the ride. These resulted in significant growth of awareness and interest across the Ethereum ecosystem and even beyond the crypto world.

However, still up to date, no real DAO has been activated. By real I mean, not an experiment. By real I mean, a DAO that is obviously solving a problem or providing an opportunity to its members, clients or stakeholders better than any other vehicle. By real I mean, it has a great business model, sustainable funding and revenue. By real I mean, that it is big, much bigger than what we’ve seen so far. Though, to be fair, this last one is falling under my own definition of DAOs which not everyone will agree with. To put it in one sentence, we haven’t yet seen a product-market fit for a single DAO, and all the more so for a DAO platform. Finding a product-market fit for a DAO, and more so for a DAO platform, will be a pivotal moment in history which will irrevocably change society and the way we organize. It will change the global distribution of power and wealth and will be an advanced milestone in the global movement of decentralization.

I’m making the prediction that 2020 is going to be that year. I’m predicting that in 2020 we’re about to see a product-market fit for a DAO. I’m also guessing that we’ll see the replicability of these, and thus the product-market fit for a DAO platform. I’m guessing that we’ll see a DAO app that is almost as friendly as it is using Facebook today. And I’m speculating that DAO is going to be the most discussed topic in the entire blockchain space by the end of 2020.

Wanna be part of one of a DAO experiment or place a bet on the above? Tweet me on @matanfield.

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¹ For a nice ramp up on the DAO state of affairs check out this overview.